The announcement on the 8th that Mojtaba Khamenei, who President Donald Trump had repeatedly denied, would succeed as Supreme Leader of Iran is expected to escalate the US and Israel’s offensive against Iran that has continued for over a week.
Reuters and AFP reported on the same day that Iran’s Council of Experts has appointed Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, who was killed in a US and Israeli airstrike, as the next Supreme Leader. While he had envisioned a “Venezuelan model” in which a more moderate figure than Ali Khamenei would lead a pro-US government in Iran, this now appears more likely to result in a “Khamenei Season 2,” contrary to his wishes.
Mojtaba enjoys high trust in the Iranian military and is considered a hardliner on the US. President Trump, who insisted that he should be involved in Iran’s succession structure, strongly expressed his rejection, saying, “Khamenei’s son is unacceptable to me.” In a telephone interview with the American online media outlet Axios on the 5th, President Trump said, “Khamenei’s son is a lightweight.”
Iran’s choice of a figure whom President Trump declared “unacceptable” as its next leader can be interpreted as a demonstration of its will not to easily surrender to the United States in this war. Iran’s plan seems to be to create chaos in the international economy, including oil prices, by effectively blockading the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy transport chokepoint, and launching offensives against neighboring countries under the pretext of attacking US military bases, thereby driving the United States into a situation where it will be difficult to engage in a prolonged war.
While President Trump’s response to the Iranian Supreme Leader’s son’s succession has not yet been released, his previous remarks suggest he will likely tighten the reins on Iran’s offensive. In public statements and media interviews, Trump has declared that he will continue military operations against Iran without a time limit and will keep various options for military action on the table until he achieves his goals. He has dismissed concerns about oil prices, a potential burden on the war, stating, “Once this operation is over, oil prices will fall,” and has indicated he will not be concerned about domestic opposition.
Furthermore, his aides have stated that they have sufficient firepower to attack Iran. Attention is focused on whether the “decapitation operation” that took place immediately after the war, targeting Ali Khamenei, will be repeated against Mojtaba. President Trump, who remarked in Iran on the 3rd that “everyone who appears to want to be a leader is ultimately dead,” added in an ABC interview that day, “Without our approval, he (Iran’s new Supreme Leader) won’t last long.”
Given that it seems unlikely that Iran announced Mojtaba’s succession with President Trump’s “approval,” if his remarks are true, the US and Israeli militaries could launch an operation to oust Iran’s second-generation Supreme Leader. President Trump deployed special forces to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and he has not ruled out the possibility of deploying special forces against Iran, even if it is based on the premise of “securing enriched uranium.” However, Iran is also expected to anticipate and prepare for bombings or the deployment of special forces. It remains unclear whether a military operation to remove Mojtaba will unfold, as it did during the raid on Ali Khamenei at the start of the war, or whether it will be successful even if it does.
If the operation fails, the burden will fall back on Iran, and if Iran regroups around the next Supreme Leader and prolongs the war, the domestic and international political and economic pressures President Trump will face will inevitably increase. With the number of US military casualties in this war rising to seven as of today, the issue of US casualties could further exacerbate President Trump’s concerns amidst weak public support for the war in the United States.
With Iran seemingly effectively rejecting President Trump’s message regarding the appointment of the Supreme Leader, expectations are high that the war, now in its tenth day, will not end quickly. The international community will likely focus on President Trump’s message regarding Mojtaba’s appointment.
President Trump, who has frequently touted the “Venezuelan model” toward Iran and hoped to induce a shift toward pro-American policies through a moderate leader from within the Iranian power structure, will likely deliver a hard-liner message or adopt a cautious approach, observing Mojtaba’s actions.