Since the start of the second Trump administration, visa barriers for international students dreaming of studying in the United States have been steadily rising. Last year, the rejection rate for international student visas (F-1) soared to 35%, marking the highest level in the past decade. This effectively means that one out of every three applicants failed to receive a visa.
According to an annual report released by Shore light, an organization specializing in international education, the global F-1 visa rejection rate for 2025 is projected to reach 35%. This figure is even higher than the previous peak recorded in 2020, when visa screening was tightened due to the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report analyzed that this increase in visa rejections acted as one of the main causes of the sharp decline in international student enrollment for the fall semester of 2025. In particular, the rise in rejection rates was concentrated in specific regions.
Students from Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia were found to have been the most significantly affected. In the case of Africa, approximately 64% of F-1 visa applicants were rejected, resulting in a severe situation where effectively “more than half were eliminated.”
This figure represents a significant increase from 43% in 2015 and a 5-percent point rise from the previous year. In some countries, the situation is even more serious, with cases reported in Sierra Leone and Somalia where the rejection rate exceeded 90%. Changes in India, once one of the largest sources of international students for the U.S., are also notable. India’s student visa rejection rate surged from 36% in 2023 to 61% in 2025. This nearly twofold increase in just two years demonstrates that obtaining a visa is becoming increasingly difficult even for traditional student supply nations. In contrast, South America showed a different trend.
The visa rejection rate for South American students decreased from 31% in 2022 to 22% in 2025, recording a gradual decline over the past four years. However, as it remains high compared to 10 years ago, it is difficult to view this as a complete improvement. Europe maintained a relatively stable trend. The visa rejection rate for applicants from Europe has remained largely unchanged over the past decade and is projected to be low at around 9% by 2026. This suggests that there may be differences in the application of visa screening standards by region.
Reflecting these trends, the number of Korean international students in the U.S. continues to decline. According to the ‘Open Doors’ report, an annual international student statistic by the Institute of International Education (IIE), the total number of Korean international students enrolled in U.S. universities, graduate schools, and language institutes for the 2024–25 academic year was 42,293, a decrease of approximately 2% from the previous year.
Excluding the 2020–21 (39,491) and 2021–22 (40,755) academic years, when the COVID-19 pandemic was severe, this marks the lowest level since 2010. The number of Korean international students has been generally declining since peaking at 73,351 in the 2010–2011 academic year. The report points out that current visa policies are undermining the “principle of merit-based selection.”
Controversy regarding equity is also being raised, as outcomes can vary significantly based on country of origin or region rather than academic ability or potential. In fact, it is reported that as a system where most applicants from certain countries are rejected becomes entrenched, the number of cases where students give up on studying in the U.S. altogether is increasing. Experts warn that tightening visa barriers could have a negative impact on the competitiveness of U.S. higher education in the long run. This is because international students play a crucial role not only in tuition revenue but also in research, innovation, and the labor market.
Concerns are being raised that a decline in the influx of international talent, particularly in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) fields, could lead to a weakening of the United States’ global competitiveness. Meanwhile, the rise in visa rejection rates is analyzed to be the result of a complex interplay of factors, including concerns over illegal immigration, political and diplomatic variables, and stricter screening criteria. However, there are also significant criticisms that the lack of clear disclosure of criteria is increasing uncertainty for applicants.
Shoreright pointed out, “If an international student’s chances of admission are determined by their country of origin rather than academic performance or financial ability, the fairness of the U.S. visa system could be undermined.” Ultimately, visa strategy is emerging as a crucial variable for studying in the United States. While the U.S. remains the world’s largest destination for international students, the prevailing view is that the threshold has become much higher than before.
Inside Higher Ed, a media outlet specializing in higher education, analyzed that the increase in F-1 visa rejection rates also contributed to the decline in the number of international students at U.S. universities during last fall semester.