CNN reported on the 9th that the Republican Party is losing its edge in the economy and security sectors, where it has traditionally held strength, as voter dissatisfaction grows over President Donald Trump’s stance on the Iran war and other issues. With red flags appearing in various polling indicators, the Republican Party’s sense of crisis is expected to intensify ahead of the upcoming November midterm elections.
According to a poll released on the 6th by Reuters and Ipsos (conducted from July 29 to August 3 among 4,505 adults, with a margin of error of ±2.0 percentage points), the Democratic and Republican parties recorded virtually equal support ratings in the areas of “war, overseas conflict, and terrorism.” Thirty-seven percent of respondents answered that the Democratic Party has a better approach in this area, while 36 percent chose the Republican Party. Reuters reported that this is the first time since the question was introduced in December 2024 that the Democratic Party has led the Republican Party, albeit within the margin of error.
At that time, the Republican Party led the Democratic Party by 11 percentage points, but this trend has been reversed in about a year and eight months. In a poll conducted by Fox News from the 17th to the 20th of last month (surveying 1,003 registered voters, margin of error ±3.0 percentage points), 50% of respondents preferred the Republican Party in the “national security” sector, compared to 48% for the Democratic Party, with the gap between the two parties remaining within the margin of error.
This result contrasts with the same survey conducted in January of this year, prior to the start of the match against Iran, where the Republican Party led the Democratic Party by 12 percentage points. Prior to the match against Iran, the gap between the Republican and Democratic parties in the national security sector had never narrowed to within double digits in Fox News polls.
A similar phenomenon is also appearing in the economic sector. In the same Fox News poll, the Democratic Party garnered 54% support in the economic sector compared to the Republican Party’s 45%, giving the Democrats a 9-point lead. This marks the largest margin the Democrats have over the Republicans since 2006, when they held a 20-point advantage. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll as well, 37% of respondents believed the Democratic Party had a better approach to the U.S. economy, compared to 36% for the Republican Party.
Citing these poll figures, CNN reported, “It appears to show that President Trump significantly miscalculated the repercussions of controversial policies, such as the launch of the war against Iran and the imposition of global tariffs.” While the Democratic Party has historically held a relative advantage in education and healthcare, national security is an area where the Republican Party has traditionally held a significant lead over the Democrats. CNN noted that this dynamic persisted even when former President George W. Bush launched the Iraq War. However, CNN pointed out, “With President Trump handling the Iran war so poorly, it appears that Americans have suddenly come to regard the Democratic Party as equal to the Republicans, even in areas traditionally considered Republican strengths.”
Furthermore, noting that President Trump cannot escape responsibility for the subsequent economic situation given that he spearheaded the tariff imposition, the report assessed, “The fact that the Democratic Party is leading on economic issues is significant.”