The upcoming midterm elections in November, which will determine the future direction of power in the U.S. Congress, are a major political event on which President Donald Trump’s political fate hinges. If the opposition Democratic Party secures majority status in both the House and Senate through these elections, President Trump’s administration in the latter half of his term could face a serious crisis. This is because the Democratic Party could launch a fierce offensive against the Trump administration by leveraging Congress’s indiscriminate powers, such as the authority to audit the administration, hold hearings, and issue subpoenas. This could target not only the overall agenda of the Trump administration but also President Trump’s own family and assets, which have been subjects of controversy.
However, U.S. media reports suggest that President Trump will maintain a strong political standing within the Republican Party even if the party loses the midterm elections. On the 2nd, with the midterm elections just over three months away, the U.S. online media outlet Axios reported in an article titled “Trump’s final act begins” that “President Trump does not care much if the Republican Party loses both houses of Congress or one of them in this fall’s midterm elections.” While he certainly prefers a landslide victory, he appears indifferent to the election results themselves or to the indiscriminate congressional investigations that could occur once the Democratic Party becomes the majority party.
Above all, the report pointed out that since President Trump is not the type of politician who shares the stage of power or grooms a successor, his “big picture” is to leverage his influence to the fullest to sway the landscape of the next presidential election. Axios predicted, “Whether he wins or loses the midterm elections, Trump will enjoy a Republican Congress favorable to him, and will gleefully play the role of ‘kingmaker’ for the 2028 presidential election, further testing the limits of his pursuit of presidential power beyond Congress.” In addition, his advisors say that in cases where future legal issues may arise, President Trump will use his pardon power to protect the aides enforcing them.
It is highly likely that the Republican lawmakers entering the upcoming 120th Congress will be largely filled with “Trump loyalists.” This is because President Trump has largely succeeded in the Republican primaries held in various states, effectively forcing his critics out of politics and installing figures he supports in their place. Axios predicted that the Republican parties in both the Senate and the House will become more “MAGA-like” (referring to Trump’s core support base, the campaign slogan “Make America Great Again”), forecasting that loyalists will chair Senate committees and that elected lawmakers will fill the void left by displaced critics in the House.
This consolidation of his support base within the Republican Party signifies that conditions are in place for him to dominate the next presidential election landscape, not only by nominating the 2028 presidential candidate but also by controlling the Republican Party’s policy messaging. President Trump currently desires a “Vice President J.D. Vance – Secretary of State Marco Rubio” lineup for the 2028 presidential and vice-presidential elections, and it is highly likely that he will push this through unless he changes his mind.
Furthermore, Axios reported that President Trump will continue to raise donations and political funds, expanding his influence beyond his presidential authority. One of Trump’s advisors told Axios, “He likes the fact that when he says ‘give him money,’ they hand him money,” while another advisor stated, “Trump will forever enjoy the situation where Republicans beg for his support.” This is interpreted to mean that Trump could continue to play the role of a “kingmaker” within the Republican Party not only during the 2028 election campaign but also after he steps down following the end of his second term.
Axios cited President Trump hinting at the possibility of seeking a third term in various speeches as one of the three major political events to watch after the midterm elections. The report analyzed, “Trump will hint at the possibility of running for the next presidential election until the very end, but this is all for publicity and merely a means to keep Vance and Rubio tied to their current roles as Vice President and Secretary of State.” It also noted that, in addition to Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio, other potential Republican presidential contenders include Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Senator Ted Cruz (Texas), and Senator Josh Hawley (Missouri), and that the White House is keeping a close eye on them. Furthermore, Axios pointed out that a “constitutional clash” between President Trump and the legislature over Congress’s oversight of the executive branch could occur, asking, “What would happen if Trump instructed his entire administration, his family, and his friends to ‘just ignore Congress’?”