With the “Alaska Summit” between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin ending without a deal on the 15th, efforts to find a way out of the three-and-a-half-year-old Ukraine War are likely to be delayed for the time being.<\/p>\n
In their joint press conference following their meeting, the two leaders positively evaluated the situation, using expressions like “productive” (Trump) and “constructive” (Putin). However, they failed to reach an agreement on a ceasefire, a cessation of hostilities that would be the first step toward ending the Ukraine War.<\/p>\n
During this meeting, it was expected that a final agreement would be reached through subsequent trilateral or multilateral talks involving Russia, Ukraine, and the United States if the two countries aligned, but no mention of a “ceasefire” was made by either leader.<\/p>\n
First, President Trump left room for follow-up negotiations, stating in a press conference, “While we haven’t reached an agreement, there’s a very good chance we’ll reach an agreement.” He added, “I’ll call NATO later. I’ll call as many people as I deem appropriate. I’ll call President Zelensky (Ukrainian) first and tell him about today’s meeting,” indicating that he would use the outcome of today’s meeting to gather input from the opposing camp.<\/p>\n
If Ukraine and the European countries that have supported Ukraine assess the Russian ceasefire proposal from President Trump as “forward-looking,” this could increase the likelihood of follow-up negotiations that include Ukraine. However, the failure of the two leaders to produce any tangible agreement during this rare face-to-face meeting has led to cautious optimism about the future of the negotiations.<\/p>\n
The failure to reach a tangible agreement appears to be due to the failure to find common ground on key issues in the ceasefire or peace talks, such as “territorial redistricting” and the provision of security guarantees to Ukraine.<\/p>\n
Russia, while maintaining its position of annexing the occupied territories in eastern Ukraine, including Donbas, is likely to have expressed reluctance to accept security guarantees such as the stationing of Western troops in Ukraine.<\/p>\n
Even before the meeting, President Trump had raised the issue of territorial redistricting surrounding Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine as a subject for negotiation and had made it clear that Ukraine’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was “unacceptable.”<\/p>\n
Ultimately, President Trump’s starting point for negotiations was largely acceptance of Russia’s demands. However, he appears to have failed to extract concessions from President Putin that Ukraine and Europe could consider accepting. It remains unclear how strongly President Trump lobbied for sanctions against Russia to extract concessions. Given that both leaders have positively evaluated the summit, if we take this at face value, it seems possible that some progress could be made through follow-up negotiations soon. However, if Russia’s offensive against Ukraine continues without any clear progress on a ceasefire, this summit could ultimately be seen as a dubious victory for President Putin.<\/p>\n
President Putin, who has been severely isolated from the international community since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, met with the leader of a major Western power for the first time since the outbreak of the Ukrainian War and set foot on American soil for the first time in 2015. For President Putin, who has even been issued an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court (ICC), this appears to be an opportunity to partially escape diplomatic isolation. Furthermore, by appearing willing to engage in dialogue to end the war, he has gained some legitimacy.<\/p>\n
President Trump, aiming for the Nobel Peace Prize, has now encountered a wall in his diplomatic efforts to mediate international disputes, often referred to as “Putin.”<\/p>\n
Since returning to the White House in January, he has garnered considerable recognition for mediating conflicts between Cambodia and Thailand, India and Pakistan, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Azerbaijan and Armenia. However, he has faced a wall in the most crucial conflict, the Ukraine War. The key to subsequent negotiations will likely be whether President Trump will use the anti-Russian sanctions card he holds.<\/p>\n
On the 6th, President Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on India (effective around the 27th) for Russian oil imports, thus playing the so-called “secondary tariff” card. While imposing sanctions in the form of increased tariffs on countries trading with Russia, there was also an aspect of squeezing Russia’s financial resources.<\/p>\n
Furthermore, President Trump holds additional pressure cards, such as sanctions against Russian banks and additional tariffs on China, another major customer for Russian energy. If he pursues follow-up negotiations with Russia and takes concrete steps to implement these sanctions, the likelihood of mobilizing Russia increases. However, the consensus is that if he hesitates to act out of concern for the potential repercussions on the US-Russia relations that began normalizing following today’s meeting, it is unlikely that Putin will voluntarily end the war, which is currently in his favor.<\/p>\n
In this regard, the fact that President Trump did not mention “sanctions” or any comments that could be interpreted as “pressure” on Putin during his press conference appears alarming.<\/p>\n
Furthermore, in an interview with Fox News before returning to Washington, when asked about the “consequences” of his warnings to Russia, including the possibility of increased tariffs on China for Russian energy imports, Trump said, “Because of what happened today (the US-Russia summit), I don’t think we need to think about that right now.” He then reiterated, “I may have to think about it in two or three weeks, but I don’t need to think about it now.”<\/p>\n
President Trump then revealed his perception that the ball was in Ukraine’s court, saying that whether an agreement would be reached rested with Ukrainian President Zelensky. This could be interpreted as an attempt to extend the time for “diplomacy” rather than immediately deploying pressure measures such as sanctions against Russia. Concerns are also being raised that if President Trump does not pursue both “pressure” and “negotiation” in tandem with President Putin, who believes a “race against time” is not currently disadvantageous, he could easily become entangled in Putin’s delaying tactics.<\/p>\n
Ultimately, the international community is expected to focus on whether President Trump, who shook Putin’s hand for the first time in six years and offered him the seat next to him in the limousine on the way to the summit, will be able to change his expression and begin pressuring Russia.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"