As discussions on a ’30-day partial ceasefire’ in the Ukraine war continue, Ukraine is employing a negotiation strategy aimed at inducing greater US intervention, with the hope that the United States will act as a ceasefire supervisor to prevent further escalation. Ukraine’s leaders believe that, as a powerful mediator, the US should oversee the ceasefire to ensure that Russia does not exploit a partial ceasefire to strengthen its offensive.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke with President Donald Trump on March 19th, expressing his support for a partial ceasefire. The two leaders agreed that such a ceasefire would serve as a crucial first step toward a broader end to the conflict. They also agreed to form high-level delegations to negotiate the technical issues needed for the ceasefire and its potential expansion. The partial ceasefire, which follows a phone call between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin the day before, involves halting attacks on energy and infrastructure facilities for 30 days.
Russia, however, rejected the proposal for a 30-day full ceasefire, which had been suggested by US and Ukrainian delegations. There were concerns that Russia, with the upper hand in the war, would use its momentum to strengthen its offensive while excluding Ukraine’s energy infrastructure from the ceasefire. Running out of options, President Zelenskyy accepted the partial ceasefire plan, requesting that the US play a role in overseeing the ceasefire.
The fact that both the US and Ukraine agreed to prepare for working-level delegation negotiations signals that they are moving toward ensuring the proper implementation of the partial ceasefire. It also suggests that the US is willing to incrementally involve itself in the management of the ceasefire. This development is further tied to Ukraine’s discussions with the US about the operation of its nuclear power plant and power grid.
In a phone call with Zelenskyy, President Trump offered US expertise in power and utilities, particularly regarding the operation of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. While this facility is in Russian-occupied territory, it remains staffed by Ukrainian employees. If territorial negotiations begin in earnest, Russia is likely to claim ownership. By leaving open the possibility of US involvement in the plant’s operation, Ukraine aims to leverage the issue to its advantage.
President Trump also agreed to share defence information with Ukraine, a move likely linked to the management of the ceasefire. While Russia has opposed the sharing of such information, the US may find it difficult to refuse if it is framed as necessary to monitor the adherence to the ceasefire. The worst-case scenario for Ukraine is that the US merely provides military support without fully engaging in the unstable ceasefire. To prevent this, Ukraine is pushing for deeper US involvement in the ongoing issues from the partial ceasefire stage onward.